Iran’s Deterrence Power

This post is an excerpt of an interesting article.

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From a general point of view, it seems that Iran’s Deterrence Power is based on 4 basic principles:

1- Avoiding trusting international entities

Considering International Entities and Agencies as ‘means of International Imperialism to Conquer World’ dates back to the very beginning of Islamic Revolution. Iraqi Experience, however, has made Iranian military strategists even more determined not to trust such agencies. According to these strategists, Saddam’s regime for more than a decade cooperated with International Agencies responsible for monitoring production and maintaining its arsenal and these agencies neutralized Saddam’s military capabilities to a great extent. Finally, when they succeeded in completely inactivating Saddam’s arsenal, Bush administration waged a war on Iraq in the name of Weapon of Mass Destruction which never existed at all.

2- Deterrence out of Iranian borders

According to IRI strategists, another important lesson of Iraqi Experience is about encountering Stronger Enemy. They believe that Saddam’s strategy based on encountering occupiers inside Iraqi borders was bound to fail. To avoid similar failure, IRI strategists have maintained that in the case of an American attack on Iran, war zone will be determined by Iran. It means that in the case of war, the aggression will not be limited to Iran, but would include Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Palestine, Gulf countries, as well as other places. That is because, IRI strategists claim, America has offered Iranians some kind of Potential Hostages in the region. In addition to Iran’s own military capabilities, there are some possible allies who would help Iran fight against US in other parts of the region. Even some non-Shiite groups might be eager to help Iran. And this point can help decipher why some statement made by Iranian Officials about Holocaust, Wiping Israel off the Map, etc. Such statements were welcomed by millions of Muslims who hate Israel and are frustrated by other Muslim rulers who ‘are not man of their words.’

3- Getting Ready to Take Maximum Risks in Worst Cases

Iran normally prefers no military invasion. However, IRI strategists believe that Iran should be ready to pay ‘every’ price to make the enemy suffer maximum loss. For example, Iranians are supposedly ready to embrace martyrdom, i.e. to fight to their last drop of blood. In modern wars in which modern capabilities can make patriotism fruitless, such statements may be underestimated. However, Embracing Martyrdom translates into ‘Taking Every Possible Risk’ and that is what, IRI strategists believe, US can’t afford at all.

4- Maximum Preparedness inside Iran

Maximum Preparedness not only includes arranging for Asymmetric War and Passive Defense but also requires eliminating Fifth Column. IRI strategists believe that Iraq’s failure in First Gulf War did not lead to overthrowing Saddam’s regime for a simple reason: there was no alternative to Bathi Government. Hence, as long as there is no alternative to IRI, even a military failure can not lead to regime change. That is why removing every possible alternative would be on IRI agenda in the case of American-led war.

Iran-US direct talks... how US generals think of it?

Today Pentagon Channel broadcast a briefing in Iraq in which two US generals were answering media correspondents. One of the Arab reporters asked US generals of the next round of security talks with Iran on Iraq issues, and the general responded: "that is not a dialogue between US and Iran; rather it is a direct talk between Iraqis and their Iranian counterparts and we participate in it trying to elaborate for Iranians how they could help Iraqis in security issues."


Note:
Pentagon Channel
Hotbird, Frequency: 11096000, Horizontal, Symbol Rate: 28000

Will Iran and US begin a war?

few weeks ago, a very good friend on Facebook asked of my opinion about a possible war between Iran and US. here is her message and my response (with few edits in both letters):

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I keep hearing all the time that people in America are so worried that Iran will one day bomb them. Why do Iranians hate Americans? Although I probably know the answer, it is because Americans are invading Iraq and ruining the country....

Elissa

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hi
yesterday, I was reading some quotes of Ernest Hemingway, and one of them best applies to this case:
"War is no longer made by simply analysed economic forces if it ever was. War is made or planned now by individual men, demagogues and dictators who play on the patriotism of their people to mislead them into a belief in the great fallacy of war when all their vaunted reforms have failed to satisfy the people they misrule."
if your compatriot, Ernest, were still alive, he would be much excited to see how his prediction came true in this case...!

Elissa,
America's invasion and Iraq's story had 2 lessons for Iranians, 1 for the people and 1 for the regime:

I) for the people: US would not care about the country and its natural resources or infrastructures or even the society's future, when it decides to attack.

II) for the regime: Vietnam's story would never happen again; if US decides to attack, it will change the regime for sure, no matter how much it may cost.
add following facts to the above lessons:

1) Iranians don't hate Americans, or at least I feel so.

2) Extermists would bomb/attack America, if they could. (note: in this case, Time goes in favour of US, because my country's problems weakens extermists more and more, day in, day out, espicially when we consider future UN sanctions. nowadays, more people ask Ahamadinead to do something for inflation, unemployment, etc. and give up on other things, and the number of this group is on rise).

3) There is a very wide spectrum of ideas about Iraqis' current situaion. some even say that Iraqis had to be punished for the crimes they did against us during 8-years-of-war. from this point of view, US was the hand of God, though somehow a dirty hand!

4) look at recent direct-talks between Iran and US in Iraq. following the news, I felt that Iranian politicians were more thirsty for these talks!

5) moderate groups will win next presidential elections in Iran, godwilling.

6) it seems that Democrats in your country are more likely to enter the house. true?

7) Iran knows that no country would help it in the case of a possible US attack.

8) Iran's regime makes a massive propaganda about its military capabilities, but most of the people doubt it seriously. and a pre-emptive attack can stop any kind of possible attack on Israel or other local interests of US by Iran. Iran is not that strong.

when I try to consider above lessons and facts together, I come to believe that Iran would never enter a war. this is the only rational conclusion of these facts on the ground.
BUT,
'never underestimate the power of idiots, espicially when they come as a group'!an idiot may never think of rationality, and 2 idiots together can do their best to destory a whole world. this is what I am afraid of, not facts, truths, or Americans.
Take care

Mohammad

Everybody who saw this place, got happy

Once upon a time, an Arab Caliph got out of Baghdad. Riding here and there, he finally arrived at a very beautiful suburban area of Baghdad.
The beauty of the place was really amazing. He ordered to make a palace and a small town there, and named it: 'everybody who saw this place, got happy'.
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A history teacher in high school told us this story.
Right now, I wonder how 'Chaos Theory' is able to predict the 'Butterfly Effect' of that decision (the decision of Caliph to build a city right there).
If that king were sick that day, if his horse were not riding that way, if that day were within winter not spring, and too many more ifs, we might never see that city on the map.
Indeed, if one of these IFs had come true, that city would have been wiped off the map before its appearance!
One more question: if the Caliph were still alive in these days, would he name the city 'everybody who saw this place, got happy' again?
I'm not sure. Yesterday, this city saw again one of the most... sorry! I can't find a proper adjective to describe my feeling. Check news headlines for yesterday attacks on Samarra, in Iraq. The holy shrine of 2 Shia Imams got exploded again.
Waiting for a time to see peace brought back to Iraq, and see that 'everybody who sees this place, gets happy'.
God Willing
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Samarra: Medieval Islamic writers believed that the name “Samarra” is derived from the Arabic phrase, “Sarre men ra’a” which translates to “A joy for all who see”.

Who thinks US-Iran direct talks are really serious?!

Who thinks US-Iran direct talks are really serious?!