July 4, 2007

Will Iran and US begin a war?

few weeks ago, a very good friend on Facebook asked of my opinion about a possible war between Iran and US. here is her message and my response (with few edits in both letters):


I keep hearing all the time that people in America are so worried that Iran will one day bomb them. Why do Iranians hate Americans? Although I probably know the answer, it is because Americans are invading Iraq and ruining the country....
yesterday, I was reading some quotes of Ernest Hemingway, and one of them best applies to this case:
"War is no longer made by simply analysed economic forces if it ever was. War is made or planned now by individual men, demagogues and dictators who play on the patriotism of their people to mislead them into a belief in the great fallacy of war when all their vaunted reforms have failed to satisfy the people they misrule."
if your compatriot, Ernest, were still alive, he would be much excited to see how his prediction came true in this case...!
America's invasion and Iraq's story had 2 lessons for Iranians, 1 for the people and 1 for the regime:
I) for the people: US would not care about the country and its natural resources or infrastructures or even the society's future, when it decides to attack.
II) for the regime: Vietnam's story would never happen again; if US decides to attack, it will change the regime for sure, no matter how much it may cost.
add following facts to the above lessons:
1) Iranians don't hate Americans, or at least I feel so.
2) Extermists would bomb/attack America, if they could. (note: in this case, Time goes in favour of US, because my country's problems weakens extermists more and more, day in, day out, espicially when we consider future UN sanctions. nowadays, more people ask Ahamadinead to do something for inflation, unemployment, etc. and give up on other things, and the number of this group is on rise).
3) There is a very wide spectrum of ideas about Iraqis' current situaion. some even say that Iraqis had to be punished for the crimes they did against us during 8-years-of-war. from this point of view, US was the hand of God, though somehow a dirty hand!
4) look at recent direct-talks between Iran and US in Iraq. following the news, I felt that Iranian politicians were more thirsty for these talks!
5) moderate groups will win next presidential elections in Iran, godwilling.
6) it seems that Democrats in your country are more likely to enter the house. true?
7) Iran knows that no country would help it in the case of a possible US attack.
8) Iran's regime makes a massive propaganda about its military capabilities, but most of the people doubt it seriously. and a pre-emptive attack can stop any kind of possible attack on Israel or other local interests of US by Iran. Iran is not that strong.
when I try to consider above lessons and facts together, I come to believe that Iran would never enter a war. this is the only rational conclusion of these facts on the ground.
'never underestimate the power of idiots, espicially when they come as a group'!an idiot may never think of rationality, and 2 idiots together can do their best to destory a whole world. this is what I am afraid of, not facts, truths, or Americans.
Take care


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