23 dhj 2007

a New Revolution; is it feasible?

Following a post in MEY, a series of comments were exchanged that one of them is worthy of being posted here.
Eric said:
  • There are some fundamental questions regarding fomenting a “new revolution” that will see overthrowing the existing regime in Iran. Since the actual rulers of Iran currently are religious figures, would these revolutionaries overthrow them? Is there that much of a secular-minded movement existing in Iran, and if not, could it even come into being? Would the armed forces support such an uprising? It would be natural for the current regime to accuse any serious movement of this type of being agents of the US and Israel. How would such a movement refute these accusations, and could it survive them?
And, here is my answer:
*****
These are some answers to your questions, obviously based on my experience of this society, and not necessarily true answers or applicable to the society as a whole.
  • Since the actual rulers of Iran currently are religious figures, would these revolutionaries overthrow them?
If you mean denouncing the religion itself, the answer is this: Absolutely No. today there are some new trends of religious life (close to mysticism and etc.) on rise between some youth, which shows that people are still bonded over religion, though they might hate the political (ab)use of it.
If you mean removing religious figures from power, that is an option, and another option is finding some moderate religious figures… suppose that a sudden regime change happens in Iran; do not get surprised if you read some day in news headlines that ‘Khatami: new president of Iran’ (Khatami: reformist president before Ahmadinejad)!!
  • Is there that much of a secular-minded movement existing in Iran, and if not, could it even come into being?
Iranians, even some devout ones, are increasingly getting used to a new model of religious life which saves the religion in private and follows social norms in the public. if you call it a ’secular-minded’ movement, yeah! Congratulations! That is happening!
But this movement is almost based on personal experiences, not on some social or philosophical grounds. The ‘personal experiences’ of the people are converging to the point of secularism: they feel that it is better to let everybody live his/her preferred life.
  • Would the armed forces support such an uprising?
Not, at all. Two major parts of armed forces are: Artesh (classic army) and Sepah (Revolutionary Guards). The latter is a fanatic supporter of Regime, in all levels of its employees (anyone to enter Guards should pass several examinations, and a full investigation would be done to ensure that he is also a fanatic supporter of the regime). Sepah, as well as country’s ministry of intelligence, enjoys a supervisory role over Artesh.
  • It would be natural for the current regime to accuse any serious movement of this type of being agents of the US and Israel. How would such a movement refute these accusations, and could it survive them?
People usually don't care much about these matters, I think. Its very usual to hear a sentence like ‘God may forgive Shah, he was a better ruler’ from everyone who faces/hears a trouble somewhere in this country (troubles ranging from getting a permission from municipality to the holes of the roads, to the price of bread, to the earthquake news, to weather forecast!), and that means that people would embrace every person (even Shah) who might help them make a better life.

8 komente:

Masih tha...

Besmellah;
Antifilter:
http://67.15.34.198/dmirror/http/www.baztab.com
That article:
http://hnn.us/articles/44774.html

Masih tha...

Besmellah;
Antifilter:
http://67.15.34.198/dmirror/http/www.baztab.com
That article:
http://hnn.us/articles/44774.html

Masih tha...

Besmellah;

http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/OPED/01-2006/Article-20060118-de2b77fb-c0a8-10ed-0013-5f0aeb93b88d/story.html

Masih tha...

Besmellah;

http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/OPED/01-2006/Article-20060118-de2b77fb-c0a8-10ed-0013-5f0aeb93b88d/story.html

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